Outcomes Model

The Outcomes Model is a computer simulation model for estimating the long-term impact of health interventions for people with type 2 diabetes. It has been developed primarily to assess the lifetime benefits of diabetes-related interventions. In particular, it is intended to facilitate economic evaluations by estimating changes in outcomes such as life expectancy and quality adjusted life expectancy, when risk factors such as blood glucose level, blood pressure, lipid levels and smoking status are changed. It can be applied to any population with type 2 diabetes. Other potential applications include:

• Assisting health service planning for populations with diabetes
• Estimating life expectancy of people with type 2 diabetes when writing premiums for life insurance
• Calculating expected event rates for sample size calculations when designing clinical trials.

The UKPDS Outcomes Model has been used in a range of research, clinical and commercial applications worldwide, as well as by NICE.